May market update

Memorial day is a very pivotal point in the housing market. Every year, memorial day is sort of the turning point where we enter into the summer market. Why is this important? It is where we shift out of the Spring market and enter into the Summer market, and a lot of markets will completely change almost overnight. This is where you start to see weakness in demand combined with an increase in new listings. 

The Chicago housing market can be incredibly predictable if you know the song and dance. The vast majority of our leases expire in the months of April-June. Once we get out of May, these renters have either renewed or gone under contract on a property. A lot of sellers have it in their head that the best time to list is May/June and into the summer months. This could not be further from the truth. The best time to list is Feb-April, and it’s not even close.

A lot of buyers get discouraged in the Spring market, and instead of dealing with the inconvenience of figuring out how to push their lease into the late summer/ fall or figure out alternative housing plans, they just renew for another year. This is not what you want to do because you’re just going to be in the same situation a year out. You want to keep your options open. Pay the extra few hundred to go MOM on your lease. It will pay for itself when you get a good deal.

If there is one thing to take away from this market update, it’s that May was the first month where we started to see softness. Overall, May was still a strong market for sellers. Now that we are in June, I can firmly say that most markets are flipping. You can just feel it.

Lincoln Park/ Old Town (60614): 

• Condos: Seeing inventory grow in all price points. This is still a seller’s market across the board, but we are seeing more inventory stick around, especially over 1M.
• SFH: Still a seller’s market in the lower quartiles up to 3.2M, but we are seeing inventory grow in all price points. 3.2M-4.35M is a balanced market, and anything above 4.35M is a strong buyer’s market.

Lakeview  (60657)

• Condos: Still a hardcore seller’s market (what else is new), but we are seeing good inventory growth across the board. Inventory up about 30% MOM. 
• SFH: Firms seller’s market in the lower quartiles under 2.2M. Seeing more inventory over 2.2M. This is now a buyer’s market. 

West Loop (60607)

• Condos: Seeing slight gains in inventory. Seller’s market below 600k. Fairly balanced between 600k and 1.2M but starting to favor the buyer. Strong buyer’s market above 1.2M. 
• SFH: Not enough data

West Town/Wicker/East Humboldt (60622)

• Condos: Seller’s market for all price points. Total inventory sitting at 1 month but up MOM. This is right up there with Lakeview and Logan in terms of bad beats for buyers.
• SFH: This one is a head scratcher MOM. Something to monitor. Inventory is increasing in the lower quartiles up to 1.3M and is shifting towards a balanced market. Seeing inventory decrease above 1.3M. The strongest seller’s market is between 1.3M and 2.2M. 2.2M and up was a slight buyer’s market last month, but this has now shifted to a balanced market. 

Logan/Buck (60647)

• Condo: Seller’s market across the board but starting to see some relief in the upper quartile above 800k.
• SFH: Woah! Big inventory gains in this market (FINALLY). Inventory up 33% MOM. This is becoming a nice buyer’s market above 1.5M. Seller’s market in all other price points.

South Loop (60605)

• Condos: Seller’s market below 675k. This market has really rebounded. 675k and up is a slight buyer’s market. We are also seeing noticeable rent growth in this area. I handle the leasing of around 100 properties in this zip, and we are getting higher rents for units now than we ever did in the past. 
• SFH: Not enough data

Loop/LakeShore East

• Condos: Lower quartile 450k and under is a slight seller’s market. Everything else is a slight edge to the buyer. Market is not fully back yet, but I think we have seen the bottom for this market. 
• SFH: Not enough data. 

River North

• Condos: Slight seller’s market sub 550k in the lower quartiles. The higher the price point, the more favorable the market for buyers. Severe buyer’s market 1M and higher.
• SFH: Not enough data

Streeterville

• Condos: Lower quartile under 400k favor’s the seller slightly. Buyer’s market in all upper quartiles above 400k. Absolute upper quartile is the most severe buyer’s market in all of Chicago. Supply is down over the past couple months for properties over 1.7M, but this could be due to listings being taken off the market. 
• SFH: Not enough data

Gold Coast

• Condos: Condos: Lower quartiles 550k and under favors the seller. The upper/middle quartile up to 1.2M has shifted to a more balanced market. The upper quartile above 1.2M is still a buyer’s market with about 11 months of inventory.
• SFH: This market has gotten worse over the past few years. I am seeing some signs of improvement over the past month or so. The market is fairly balanced up to 1.5M. Strong buyer’s market above 3M. 

Beverly/Morgan Park

• SFH: Seller’s market across the board. Seeing inventory grow north of 650k for the second month in a row. This is shifting to balanced. 

Over the next few months as we start to see the changes in seasonal data, we will see nonstop doom and gloom stories about how awful the housing market is. I am preparing you for this now. Please take this with a grain of salt. Prices peak out in June and slowly come down as the year progresses. I am expecting that we will likely see a modest gain in home sale prices as the year goes on. I believe we are around 8% YOY, and I am expecting this to slide down to around 3% as the year progresses. 

In the video below, I break down national inventory. One graph pertains to YOY inventory and the other graph is pre pandemic inventory compared to 2024 inventory.